Bush's Numbers Go over the Edge: Trend or Anomaly?

President George W. Bush's approval numbers for handling both the war in Iraq and the economy fell precipitously from August to November (Click here for graphic).

In August over 60 percent of those polled said that they approved the President's handling of the situation in Iraq; in November this number fell to just over 44 percent. The percentage of voters strongly disapproving of the president's performance went up an astonishing 14.6 percent (19.8 percent in August disapproved compared to 34.4 percent in November).

Similarly, those approving at some level the President's handling of the economy fell from 49.5 percent in August to 35.9 percent in November. The intensity of the President's negatives increased also. Those who strongly disapproved of the President's handling of the economy increased more than ten percentage points from 27.5 percent in August to November's 38.4 percent.

In regard to political party affiliation, the President's handling of Iraq saw the biggest decline among Democrats. From August to November, the percentage of Democrats approving the president's handling of the war declined almost 22 points (38.3 percent to 16.3 percent).

Independents dropped from 60 percent in August to 50.2 percent in November. And even the President's own Republican Party support dropped six points (85 percent in August to 79.9 percent in November).

Similarly, Democratic approval of Bush's handling of the economy dropped tremendously -- actually, November support (12.1 percent) was less than half as in August (28.4 percent). And just as the case of the war in Iraq, approval of the economy also fell for Republicans (75.6 percent to 65.5 percent) and Independent (43.6 percent to 37.7 percent).

Keep in mind that events that happen simultaneously with the polling can have an effect on poll results – which is quite possible in this particular case. At the time of this poll, there were two helicopters shot down in Iraq.

Also, during this same period the President was in North Carolina on a fundraising trip. During his visit to the Tarheel State, new figures were publicly released showing an "improving" economy and an increase in employment. However, state media coverage pointed out that -- despite this supposed "improvement" -- the tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs lost in North Carolina had not been replaced.

One final note: this poll was obviously conducted before the capture of Saddam Hussein. No doubt this significant turn of events should play in favor of President Bush . . . how much so? no one knows and we don't like to guess. We'll just have to wait and see in our next NCIndex to be complete January 2004.